![]() ![]() Local or regional-scale climate impact assessments or policy studies generally use climate change and socio-economic developments as external-uncontrollable boundary conditions for the assessments. These new scenarios all include the word pathways emphasizing that they explicitly consider the trajectories that are taken over time to reach the future GHG concentrations or radiative forcing (Moss et al 2008).Īt the global scale climate scenarios thus include time-series that describe both dynamics and interactions within the climate system, as well as mitigation policies over time. The third, recently developed, scenario generation (Moss et al 2010) includes shared socio-economic development pathways that describe socio-economic storylines for emissions (Nakicenovic et al 2014) representative concentration pathways that describe trajectories of GHG concentrations with radiative forcing endpoints (Van Vuuren et al 2011) and shared policy assumptions that give mitigation and adaptation actions (Kriegler et al 2012). This firstly occurred using linearly increasing GHG concentrations, and later using the SRES emission scenarios (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000) as input to the climate models. The second generation studies performed transient climate change experiments that included dynamics resulting from ocean-atmosphere interactions and more recently, ocean-atmosphere-biosphere interactions. ![]() In the first generation of climate change studies, analysts used GCMs to simulate an equilibrium response of the climate system under an increased but constant atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Since their first use in the 1980s they have largely evolved. Many of such future studies are done to evaluate climate adaptation strategies.Ĭlimate change scenarios combine emission scenarios and resulting climate effects. Scenarios are particularly used to explore potential ranges of outcomes due to uncertainties for example to explore different futures, to assess impacts of changes in boundary conditions, and to identify policy actions and assess their robustness across a range of possible future conditions. Van Notten 2005, Lempert 2013, Van Vuuren et al 2014). Scenarios are descriptions of alternative hypothetical futures based on coherent and internally consistent assumptions that reflect different perspectives on past, present and future developments (e.g. We argue that there are at least three important assets of using transient scenarios for supporting robust climate adaptation: (1) raise awareness about (a) the implications of climate variability and climate change for decision making and (b) the difficulty of finding proof of climate change in relevant variables for water management (2) assessment of when to adapt by identifying adaptation tipping points which can then be used to explore adaptation pathways, and (3) identification of triggers for climate adaptation. The transient scenarios were applied in model simulations and game experiments. Climate change impacted river flows were then generated with a hydrological simulation model for the Rhine basin. ![]() Relevant boundary conditions (sea level, precipitation and evaporation) were constructed by generating an ensemble of synthetic time-series with a rainfall generator and a transient delta change method. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time-dependent) scenarios by means of a case on water management in the Netherlands. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static 'endpoint' projections. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. ![]()
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